- Beggar-thy-neighbor? The International Effects of ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies (with K Bluwstein),
International Journal of Central Banking, 12(3), 69-121, 2016.
- A General Algorithm for Estimating Structural VARs (with F. Perez-Forero)
Quantitative Economics, 6(2),309-358, 2015.
- Has the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership changed Mediterranean Business Cycles?
- Appendix (with A. Schlaepfer)
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 30
(2), 241-262, 2015.
- Bridging DSGE Models and the Raw Data.
Journal of Monetary Economics, 67, 1-15, 2014.
- Choosing the variables to estimate singular DSGE models (with F. Ferroni and C. Matthes)
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 29, 1099-1117, 2014.
- Do Institutions and Culture matter for Business Cycles? (with S. Altug)
Open Economies Review, Vol. 25, no. 1 SI, 93-122, 2014.
- The Ins and Outs of Unemployment: A Conditional Analysis (with D. López-Salido and C. Michelacci)
The Economic Journal, 123, 515-539, 2013.
- Do Institutional Changes affect Business Cycles? Evidence from Europe (with M. Ciccarelli and E. Ortega)
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36, 1520-1533, 2012.
- ClubMed? Cyclical Fluctuations in the Mediterranean Basin (with M. Ciccarelli)
Journal of International Economics, 88, 162-175, 2012.
- The Dynamics of US Inflation: Can Monetary Policy explain the Changes? (with F. Ferroni)
Journal of Econometrics, 167 (1), 47-60, 2011.
- Business Cycle Measurement with Some Theory (with M. Paustian)
Journal of Monetary Economics, 48 (4), 345-361, 2011.
- Fiscal Policy, Pricing Frictions and Monetary Accommodation (with E. Pappa)
Economic Policy, 68, 555-598, 2011.
- Does Money Matter in Shaping Domestic Business Cycles? An International Investigation (with T. Menz)
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43 (4), 577-609, 2011.
- Multiple Filtering Devices for the Estimation of Cyclical DSGE Models (with F. Ferroni)
Quantitative Economics, 2 (1), 73-98, 2011.
- Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited (with L. Gambetti)
American Economic Journal, 2 (3), 183-205, 2010.
- The Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours and Output: A Robustness Analysis (with D. López-Salido and C. Michelacci)
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25 (5), 755-773, 2010.
WP version (extended)
November 2006, revised February 2008.
- Japan’s Lost Decade: Does Money have a Role? (with T. Menz)
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 24 (2), 178-195, 2010.
- Comment to "Weak Instruments Robust Tests in GMM and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve" by F. Kleibergen and S. Mavroeidis
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 27 (3), 311-315, 2009.
- How Much Structure in Empirical Models?
In Palgrave Handbook of Applied Econometrics, edited by T. Mills and K. Patterson , vol. 2, pp. 68-97, 2009.
- Estimating Multi-country VAR Models (with M. Ciccarelli)
International Economic Review, 50 (3), 929-961, 2009.
- Back to Square One: Identification Issues in DSGE Models (with L. Sala)
Journal of Monetary Economics, 56 (4), 431-449, 2009.
WP version (extended)
May 2005, revised February 2008.
- What Explains the Great Moderation in the US? A Structural Analysis
Journal of the European Economic Association, 7 (4), 697-721, 2009.
- Structural Changes in the US Economy: Is there a Role for Monetary Policy? (with L. Gambetti)
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 33 (2), 477-490, 2009.
- The Structural Dynamics of U.S. Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes? (with L. Gambetti and E. Pappa)
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40 (2-3), 369-388, 2008.
- Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research
Princeton University Press, 2007.
The following are earlier drafts of the three chapters of the book:
Chapter 4: VAR Models
Chapter 6: Likelihood Methods
Chapter 10: Bayesian VARs
- Price Differentials in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks (with E. Pappa)
The Economic Journal, 117 (520), 713-737, 2007.
Former working paper (Appendix)
- Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Lessons from 5 Years of ECB and Implications for Turkey (with C. Favero)
Macroeconomic Polices for Accession Countries, edited by E. Basci, S. Togan and J. Vonhagen, p. 79-129, 2007.
- Similarities and Convergence in G-7 Cycles (with M. Ciccarelli and E. Ortega)
Journal of Monetary Economics, 54 (3), 850-878, 2007.
- The Structural Dynamics of Output Growth and Inflation: Some International Evidence (with L. Gambetti and E. Pappa)
The Economic Journal, 117 (519), C167-C191, 2007.
- G-7 Inflation Forecasts: Random Walk, Phillips Curve or What Else?
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 11 (1), 1-30, 2007.
- The Elusive Costs and the Immaterial Gains of Fiscal Constraints (wih E. Pappa)
Journal of Public Economics, 90 (8), 1391-1414, 2006.
- The Transmission of US Shocks to Latin America
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20 (2), 229-251, 2005
- Does it Cost to be Virtuous? The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Constraints (with E. Pappa)
NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics, 11065, 327-370, 2005.
- Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model (with M. Ciccarelli)
Journal of Econometrics, 120 (2), 327-359, 2004.
- Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach
International Economic Review, 45 (1), 49-77, 2004.
- The Properties of Equity Premium and the Risk Free-Rate: An Investigation across Time and Countries (with G. de Nicoló)
IMF Staff Papers, 20 (2), 222-249, 2003.
- On the Sources of Business Cycles in the G-7 (with G. de Nicoló)
Journal of International Economics, 59 (1), 77-100, 2003.
- Did Colonization Matter for Growth? An Empirical Exploration into the Historical Causes of Africa's Underdevelopment (with G. Bertocchi)
European Economic Review, 46 (10), 1851-1871, 2002.
- Monetary Disturbances Matter for Business Fluctuations in the G-7 (with G. de Nicoló)
Journal of Monetary Economics, 49 (6), 1131-1159, 2002.
- Inequality and Convergence in Europe's Regions: Reconsidering European Regional Policies (with M. Boldrin)
Economic Policy, 13 (32), 207-253, 2001.
- Stock Returns, Term Structure, Inflation, and Real Activity. An International Perspective (with G. de Nicoló)
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 4 (3), 343-372, 2000.
- The Macroeconomic Effects of German Unification: Real Adjustments and the Welfare State (with M. Ravn)
Review of Economic Dynamics, 3 (3), 423-460, 2000.
- Does Retrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?
Economic Journal, 109 (452), 126-150, 1999.
- Sources and Propagation of International Output Cycles: Common Shocks or Transmission? (with J. Marrinan)
Journal of International Economics, 46 (1), 133-166, 1998.
- Detrending and Business Cycle Facts
Journal of Monetary Economics, 41 (3), 475-512, 1998.
- Detrending and Business Cycle Facts: A User's Guide
Journal of Monetary Economics, 41 (3), 533-540, 1998.
- International Business Cycles, Financial Markets and Household Production (with A. Ubide)
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 22 (4), 545-572, 1998.
- International Consumption Risk Sharing (with M. Ravn)
International Economic Review, 37 (3), 574-601, 1996.
- Three Tests for the Existence of Cycles in Time Series
Ricerche Economiche, 50 (2), 135-162, 1996.
- Reconciling the Term Structure of Interest Rates with the Consumption-based ICAP Model (with J. Marrinan)
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 20 (4), 709-750, 1996.
- Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Structural Approach (with G. de Nicoló)
European Economic Review, 39 (5), 981-1015, 1995.
- Sensitivity Analysis and Model Evaluation in Simulated Dynamic General Equilibrium Economies
International Economic Review, 36 (2), 477-501, 1995.
- Predicting Excess Returns in Financial Markets (with J. Marrinan)
European Economic Review, 39 (1), 35-69, 1995.
- Statistical Inference in Calibrated Models
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 9 (1), S123-S144, 1994.
- Changes in Seasonal Patterns: Are they Cyclical? (with E. Ghysels)
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18 (6), 1143-1171, 1994.
- Detrending and Turning Points
European Economic Review, 38 (3-4), 614-623, 1994.
- Were Financial Crises Predictable?
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 26 (1), 102-124, 1994.
- Profits, Risk, and Uncertainty in Foreign Exchange Markets (with J. Marrinan)
Journal of Monetary Economics, 32 (2), 259-286, 1993.
- Trade Interdependence and the International Business Cycle(with H. Dellas)
Journal of International Economics, 34 (1-2), 23-47, 1993.
- Modelling and Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Bayesian Time-varying Coefficient Model
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 17 (1-2), 233-261, 1993.
- Forecasting Time Series with Common Seasonal Patterns
Journal of Econometrics, 55 (1-2), 173-200, 1993.
- Price Smoothing Policies: A Welfare Analysis
Journal of Monetary Economics, 30 (2), 255-275, 1992.
- An Empirical Analysis of Ex Ante Profits from Forward Speculation in Foreign Exchange Markets
Review of Economics and Statistics, 73 (3), 489-496, 1991.
- The Sources of Financial Crisis: Pre- and Post-Fed Evidence
International Economic Review, 32 (3), 689-713, 1991.
- The Time-Series Properties of the Risk Premium in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Market (with T. Ito)
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 6 (2), 125-142, 1991.